Aurora Forecast for Friday, January 20, 2012

Active: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Forecast: Auroral activity will be active. Weather permitting, active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Barrow to Anchorage and Juneau, and visible low on the horizon from King Salmon and Prince Rupert.

Forecaster Comments: Three solar events occurred on Jan 18/19, 2012. The first two were small and of short duration. The last one was a coronal mass ejection associated with a long-duration solar flare from the northeast quadrant of the Sun. The location is such that the event is not facing Earth directly, but the intensity, duration and development are such that it will lead to increased auroral activity on this weekend.

The shock and the effects should reach Earth as early as 6 am GMT the 21st. That is approximately 10 hours from the time of this message. We should expect K=4 or greater auroral activity starting late on the night of the 20th in Alaska and North America and on the 21st in Russia and Europe.

Some predictions are for late on the 21st and early on the 22nd (UT or GMT). Watch the short term forecast with a map of your area for a one hour warning.