Aurora Forecast for Thursday, March 8, 2012

High: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Forecast: Auroral activity will be high. Weather permitting, highly active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Barrow to Bethel, Dillingham and Ketchikan, and visible low on the horizon from King Salmon.

Forecaster Comments: The auroral activity index of 5 and 6 that occurred on the 7th (today) is the result of the solar event on the 5th that was the subject of the previous alert. Aurora should have been visible as far south as the middle of the US on the night of Mar 6/7, as we predicted in the last alert.

A large solar event early on the 7th of March was directly more closely to the Earth-Sun line, and should produce more activity. The debris should reach Earth sometime in the late morning of March 8 GMT. This means that the resulting aurora may be visible late on the night of the 7th/8th from Alaska, but Western Russia, Europe, and the US will probably see activity levels of Kp=5 or greater on the night of March 8/9.

Note that activity on the 7th may still be greater than Kp=4.

We are having trouble with the short-term forecast panel on the aurora forecast website http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/, but watch the short term forecast to determine what the activity level will be in the next hour.



  

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