This column is provided as a public service by the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, in cooperation with the UAF research community. Ned Rozell is a science writer at the institute.

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Hubbard Glacier may be creeping back into the spotlight.

Located near Yakutat, where Alaska’s panhandle connects to the mainland, Hubbard Glacier in 1986 nosed up on land to pinch off the salt-water channel between Russell Fiord and the Gulf of Alaska. Before the ice dam broke a few months later, Russell Fiord became a lake, trapping harbor seals and other ocean creatures and attracting the attention of national media.

This summer, area residents say the 200-foot tall face of Hubbard Glacier seems to again be closing the narrow waterway that connects Russell Fiord to the ocean.

Patricia O’Connor, a ranger for the U.S. Forest Service in Yakutat, has been receiving phone calls from residents who want to know if Hubbard Glacier will seal off Russell Fiord soon. Dan Elsberg, a glaciologist at the Geophysical Institute, recently wrote a letter to a representative for an Alaska Native corporation who had the same question.

In May 1986, Hubbard advanced to Gilbert Point and blocked the entrance to Russell Fiord, creating a captive body of water more than 40 miles long. With its connection to the ocean dammed, “Russell Lake” rose 75 feet with freshwater glacial runoff. People concerned about harbor seals trapped in the lake helped a few seals over a gravel bar and back to the Gulf of Alaska.
Mother Nature made things easier when the ice dam broke in October 1986. In less than 24 hours, the water level dropped 75 feet to sea level. If the ice dam had persisted, the rising water of Russell Lake would have overflowed into Old Situk Creek, causing it to swell to 20 times its present size. The creek, southeast of Yakutat, could be rudely awakened sometime soon.

In a 1991 report, scientists predicted that Hubbard Glacier would probably dam the channel to Russell Fiord again by the year 2000. Dennis Trabant, one of the glaciologists who contributed to the report, said he based his forecast on Hubbard Glacier’s past advances. Hubbard’s erratic nature makes Trabant, of the U.S. Geological Survey, hesitant to again predict when Russell Fiord will become a lake.

Hubbard Glacier is fed by icefields in Canada so large that it will continue advancing regardless of climate warming or cooling. The glacier has been calving in the ocean while advancing since at least 1895.

Today, the icy wall of Hubbard Glacier looms over the rocky shore of Gilbert Point. O’Connor, the ranger, said the salt-water channel between land and glacier seems to be narrowing, strengthening a “tidal rip,” during which boats have trouble advancing against the current.

“People are still going up there boating, but it’s a little tricky,” she said. “The charter boat captain we use can only go through there at slack tide.”

O’Connor, who flew over the site recently, said the gap between the snout of the glacier and land is about 100-to-150 yards. Elsberg confirmed that distance after studying GPS and video data from flights along the glacier’s front in August 2000 and June 2001.

Tidal currents that scour icebergs off the snout of Hubbard Glacier have kept the entrance to Russell Fiord open while the rest of Hubbard’s 10-mile face has advanced at a more rapid rate. With snowfields the size of Lower 48 counties feeding Hubbard Glacier, the re-birth of Russell Lake may not be far off.

“It’s just a matter of time before these general advances of the glacier can overwhelm tidal losses,” Trabant said.

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