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Active auroral activity, with the aurora occurring south of Fairbanks.
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These forecasts are updated each day at 3 PM Alaska Time, and are valid for that night and the following two nights. Note that 3 PM Alaska Time is midnight in Universal Time (UT) or Greenwich Mean Time (GMT).
Predictions of auroral activity since 1994 have been based on the repetitive nature of solar disturbances during approximately four years of minimum solar activity. Solar activity began to increase in 1998, however, and stronger effects are felt due to sporadic solar activity, which cannot be predicted on the longer term. Therefore, we have changed our forecast format in keeping with more active and less predictable solar activity. The predictions are now mainly based on interpretations of satellite observations of active structures on the sun and of the solar wind between the sun and the earth. We expect this situation to prevail until around 2003.
One of the favorable effects of this change in solar activity is that people living south of the normal auroral zone will see more aurorae. The frequency of occurrence of aurora is greatest at 67° North Magnetic Latitude. During solar activity minimum, more auroras occur north of that line. During the maximum years, more occur south of that line. We hope to be able to predict some good nights of aurora viewing in the next four to five years so that you will be well-rewarded for watching the northern horizon between 10 PM and 2 AM, on clear, moonless nights.
The Aurora Forecast is produced by the Geophysical Institute Auroral Forecast Team of S. Akasofu, M. Conde, C. Deehr, D. Lummerzheim, and W. Sun. The Auroral Forecast Website is produced by D. Rice, and the distribution is managed by the Geophysical Institute Information Office, K. Berry, Information Officer.
Additional notes on interpreting these forecasts are available. You may also wish to examine recent geomagnetic activity plots.