From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Mon Nov 1 12:55:08 2004 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (Charles Deehr) Date: Mon Nov 1 12:58:31 2004 Subject: [gse-aa] Auroral Alert Message-ID: <000001c4c05d$7a8fea40$ec1be589@Forcastle> The Halloween series of solar events for this year began Friday evening and lasted over the weekend. This year's swarm is much less intense than last year, but it should produce some aurora. The effects of these events will reach Earth beginning late in the evening of Nov 2nd Greenwich Time. This means that those of you in the US and Europe should watch the sky at local midnight on the evening of the 1st and the 2nd, in case the disturbance is early. The effect of these events on the aurora is not expected to be very large, so we do not expect the aurora to venture farther equatorward than the Canadian and Scandinavian borders. Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys. Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290 email cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu The Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks 903 Koyukuk Ave N Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7320 From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Fri Nov 5 16:57:50 2004 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (Charles Deehr) Date: Fri Nov 5 17:53:57 2004 Subject: [gse-aa] Auroral Alert Message-ID: <000001c4c3a4$0ba9b260$ec1be589@Forcastle> There have been a series of events on the sun on November 3, 4, and 5th. The shocks from these events are combining to reach Earth beginning in the next 12 hours. Another event occurred just now and is continuing. This means that the aurora will be active beginning tonight in Alaska (Friday), late night and early morning Saturday in the continental US and Canada, Tasmania and NZ. Russia, Europe and the continental USA will see activity on Saturday evening. The effects of the latest flare should extend the activity for the week end, making for good aurora watching on Sat and Sun nights. As usual, we cannot predict the extent of the auroral activity. Solar activity of this magnitude is really only just at the beginning of the scale of space weather damage, so we don't expect the aurora to reach the Mexican border of Southern Europe. We expect that the aurora may come as far equatorward as 1/3 of the way from the Canadian border to the Mexican border. Those of you not dedicated to checking the sky every 1/2 hour, should go out and look at the northern horizon around local midnight for your best chance. Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys. Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290 email cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu The Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks 903 Koyukuk Ave N Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7320 From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Mon Nov 8 14:21:14 2004 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (Charles Deehr) Date: Mon Nov 8 14:22:10 2004 Subject: [gse-aa] Auroral Alert (cont.) Message-ID: <009301c4c5e9$aa8d3810$ec1be589@Forcastle> Aurorae were seen across Europe as far south as Berlin, the US as far as VA, TN and MO on Sunday night. Unfortunately, the activity did not last long enough for South Australia or North New Zealand, but there should have been aurora over Tasmainia and South NZ. Another, smaller solar event on Sunday should activate the aurora again tonight, so those of you who missed it should check the poleward sky every half hour or so tonight. Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys. Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290 email cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu The Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks 903 Koyukuk Ave N Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7320 From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Tue Nov 9 12:33:01 2004 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (Charles Deehr) Date: Tue Nov 9 12:35:53 2004 Subject: [gse-aa] Auroral Alert (cont.) Message-ID: <003f01c4c6a3$b66b9810$ec1be589@Forcastle> Another solar event today and continued magnetic disturbance prompts us to extend the auroral alert for another two days. We expect somewhat less extensive occurrence than on Sunday, but at least visible as far equatorward as a line from WA, IL, to VA in the USA. Tasmainia and South NZ. Northern Europe. Watch the poleward sky periodically, especially around midnight. Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys. Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290 email cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu The Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks 903 Koyukuk Ave N Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7320 From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Wed Nov 10 10:41:09 2004 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (Charles Deehr) Date: Wed Nov 10 10:42:04 2004 Subject: [gse-aa] Aurora Alert (cont. 3) Message-ID: <004d01c4c75d$407aeba0$ec1be589@Forcastle> Region 0696 on the sun continues to be active, with two large events in the last 24 hours. The latter of these events is very fast (2000 km/s) and the effects should reach Earth early on the 11th of November, GMT. The Earth's magnetic field continues to be disturbed by these events and we should expect to see maximum auroral activity through the 12th. Look for aurora from a dark place with a view of the poleward horizon at half hour intervals throughout the night with the largest activity expected at your local midnight. Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys. Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290 email cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu The Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks 903 Koyukuk Ave N Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7320