From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Wed Sep 7 17:07:31 2005 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu) Date: Wed Sep 7 16:42:12 2005 Subject: [gse-aa] Auroral Alert Message-ID: <1126141651.431f8ed32b6a3@webmail.gi.alaska.edu> A very bright solar event took place on September 7th around 5:45 pm Greenwich Time. It is not directly facing Earth, but the shock wave will combine with that of an earlier event to produce a significant effect at Earth. We predict that it will arrive on Sept 9 around 11 am Greenwich Time. Because it will arrive in the morning in Europe (early morning in the US), its effects will be seen first in southern New Zealand, Tasmania and Siberia. Depending on the nature of the shock, there should be aurora visible in southern scandinavia, Scotland and northern US on the evening of the 9th. Note that this event could be followed by others of similar magnitude as the active region (No. 0808) moves westward accross the sun, facing Earth by the weekend. This could result in aurora for the middle US and Northern Europe. From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Mon Sep 12 09:23:46 2005 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu) Date: Mon Sep 12 09:25:24 2005 Subject: [gse-aa] Auroral Alert Message-ID: <200509121723.j8CHNkjo007164@dogbert.gi.alaska.edu> Auroral activity remains high as the active region 0808 moves across the solar disk. Aurora reached Northern Europe, Middle USA on Saturday night. Somewhat less activity (southern scandinavia, northern US) will continue unless another large event from 0808 occurs. Prediction by [Chuck Deehr] From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Wed Sep 14 09:08:40 2005 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu) Date: Wed Sep 14 09:10:35 2005 Subject: [gse-aa] Auroral Alert Message-ID: <200509141708.j8EH8ejo010319@dogbert.gi.alaska.edu> Yet another burst has occurred from solar active region 0808. An X class (largest) flare occurred late on the 13th GMT, directly facing Earth. The shock from this event should arrive late on the 14th GMT. This means that there should be active aurora visible on the night of the 14/15th from Northern Europe, and from US and Canada (Rare clear weather in the maritimes and Iceland means it should be worth watching the legendary sky tonight). Depending on the shape of the solar wind cloud following the shock, Kiwis and Tasmanians may see it also (on the 15/16th). Prediction by [Chuck Deehr] From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Thu Sep 15 12:17:04 2005 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (Charles Deehr) Date: Thu Sep 15 12:18:07 2005 Subject: [gse-aa] Auroral Alert Message-ID: <000001c5ba32$767271b0$ec1be589@Forcastle> We were 10 hours early in our estimate of the arrival of the solar shock at Earth. Tonight, the 15th of September should be active with aurora as far equatorward as northern Europe, and Middle USA. Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys. Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290 email cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu The Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks 903 Koyukuk Ave N Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7320