[gse-aa] Auroral Alert

[Charles Deehr]

A solar event occurred on the 16th of August, 2006. The effects of this
event should reach Earth around 2 am Greenwich time on the 19th.  If it is
early or on time, there could be aurora over Europe in the early morning and
North America on Friday night.  If it is on time or late, Saturday night
will provide auroral viewing as far south as the northern tier of states in
North America and Scotland and Southern Scandinavia in Europe.

You have not received an auroral alert for some time because the sun is in a
quiet period referred to as sunspot minimum.  This condition will persist
for a year or two, but there are telltale signs that the new solar cycle is
on its way.  See:
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/15aug_backwards.htm

You might be interested to see our new auroral forecast page.  Go to
http://gi.alaska.edu/
And click on "Auroral Forecast".  Click on "The Solar Wind" and watch the
shock miss all the other inner planets and directly impact Earth early on
the 19th.

We also have a short-term (1 hour) and a long-term (28 day) automatic
forecast there, along with new maps of the extent of auroral activity. The
daily forecast should be operational next week when we begin the auroral
forecast anew for the 2006/7 season. Please let us know what you think of
the new site.

Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys.     Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290
email cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu
The Geophysical Institute                     
University of Alaska Fairbanks
903 Koyukuk Ave N             
Fairbanks, Alaska  99775-7320