From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Tue Dec 5 12:06:50 2006 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (Charles Deehr) Date: Tue Dec 5 12:08:19 2006 Subject: [gse-aa] Auroral Alert Message-ID: <00ac01c718b1$4b383000$ec1be589@Forcastle> A large solar flare occurred near the east limb on Dec 5 at 1030 UT. Although it is directed nearly 90 degrees away from the sun Earth line, we should see some effects from it, but not nearly as much as we would if it were directed at Earth. Whatever effects arrive should do so in about 77 hours, since the speed of the initial shock was 836 km/sec. We expect recurring activity beginning on the 7th, so aurora watchers should monitor the short term (1hr) forecast or watch the sky on the 7th through the 9th, at least. We would not expect aurora to extend equatorward of southern scandinavia, scotland, the northern tier of US states, southeast Alaska, and northern Russia. It may be visible on the horizon from Tasmania and southern New Zealand. Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys. Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290 email cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu The Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks 903 Koyukuk Ave N Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7320 From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Wed Dec 13 09:45:28 2006 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (Charles Deehr) Date: Wed Dec 13 09:47:39 2006 Subject: [gse-aa] Aurora Alert Message-ID: <000001c71ee6$df173560$ec1be589@Forcastle> The solar active region that came around the limb last week is now facing Earth. There was a large solar flare with attendant coronal mass ejection from this region at 0224 GMT on the 13th. This interplanetary disturbance should reach the Earth on the morning of the 14th GMT. It could take up to 12 hours to transfer its power to the geomagnetic field. The conclusion is watch the sky tonight and tomorrow night in North America perhaps as far south as the middle US and tomorrow night in Europe as far south as northern Europe. The aurora should be visible also from Tasmania and South New Zealand. You can watch our simulation of the shock travel from the sun to the planets if you go to http://www.gedds.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/ and click on the black map on the left side of the page to watch the Java movie of the interplanetary shock. Click on the short-term (1 hr) forecast map on the right hand side of the page to see what will happen in the next hour. That way you won't have to stand around outside like those in the maritimes right now in a 36 deg. drizzle and watch the cloudy sky. If it is clear where you are, watch for the Geminid meteors too. Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys. Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290 email cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu The Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks 903 Koyukuk Ave N Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7320 From cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu Thu Dec 14 16:24:59 2006 From: cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu (Charles Deehr) Date: Thu Dec 14 16:26:20 2006 Subject: [gse-aa] Auroral Alert Message-ID: <000001c71fe7$d981b010$ec1be589@Forcastle> The auroral activity associate with the solar event on the 13th has arrived and everyone with clear sky in Europe and US is enjoying a great display that started at sunset. Another event occurred on the 14th from the same active region on the sun. It will arrive at 2pm (the same time of day as today's arrival) on the 16th GMT. So watch the sky tonight, the 14th, probably the 15th and again on the 16th. Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys. Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290 email cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu The Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks 903 Koyukuk Ave N Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7320