[gse-aa] Auroral Alert Clarification of Forecast Levels

[Charles Deehr]

There are over 13,500 email addresses on the auroral alert list.  We cannot
send out separate forecasts for each region. Nor is it possible to update
the main forecast continually.

To determine if the aurora will be visible from your area, you need to check
the auroral forecast web page: http://www.gedds.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/

1) On the left hand side of the website is a choice of 5 different maps to
display the prediction of the nighttime aurora. Click on the map that best
shows your location.

2) Click on the words "Interpreting the Forecast" in the right hand side of
the website.  You will see your map displayed for each of the 10 forecast
levels (0 to 9).  Find the levels where your location is inside the green
line.
For example, on the North America map, Chicago requires a 3 to see the
aurora on the northern horizon and at least a 5 to see it overhead.  An
index 5 map for North America is attached to this message as an example.

3) Check the main forecast for the day of interest.  If your location is
within the green line on the equatorward side of the green and white band
around the pole, you should plan on aurora watching that night.

3) To see if the aurora will be visible from your location within the next
hour, look at the "short term forecast" on the right hand side of the
display.  This is a continually updated forecast, based on an actual
satellite measurement, so if it shows an index 5 and you are in Seattle,
Chicago, New York City, Halifax or anywhere under the green and white band,
then there is aurora overhead. If the sun is down, you should go outside,
away from city lights with a view of the poleward horizon, and look for it.

Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys.     Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290
email cdeehr at gi.alaska.edu
The Geophysical Institute                     
University of Alaska Fairbanks
903 Koyukuk Ave N             
Fairbanks, Alaska  99775-7320


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