[gse-ff] Exercise #389: 14 April 2002; 0744 UT
murraydryer
murraydryer@email.msn.com
Sun, 14 Apr 2002 13:41:20 -0600
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14 April 2002, 0744 UT: Exercise #389: ----run: 14 April 2002.=20
Input for: STOA/ISPM/HAFv.2=20
# Date Start Time Vs Tau Location Vsw=20
389 14 Apr. 0744 UT 730 km/s 10m N19W57 410 km/s=20
Our ensemble's prediction window is indicated as follows:=20
STOA: Shock will decay on its eastern flank at about 0.8 AU along S-E =
line..=20
ISPM: Not Available.=20
HAFv.2: Far-eastern flank of shock will arrive at 1100 UT, 17 April =
2002, SSI =3D 0.7; delta(momentum flux) =3D 4.4 nPa. This eastern flank =
will arrive prior to a CIR whose fast stream bolstered this portion of =
the flare shock, delaying its attenuation. The forward shock of the CIR =
is expected to arrive ~0700 UT, 18 April 2002.
General Description: =20
An extremely impulsive C9.6/SF flare took place in AR 9893 at =
N19W57. GOES-8 observed the soft X-ray enhancement at 0728-0739-0744 =
UT. Learmonth observed the flare in H-alpha at 0736-0738-0746 UT. San =
Vito reported a metric Type II radio drift at 0744 UT (73 MHz) to 0759 =
UT (25 MHz) with an estimated coronal shock speed, Vs =3D 730 km/sec. =
We will assume a piston-driving time, tau =3D 10 min. Kent Doggett, =
NOAA/SEC/Forecaster reported SOHO/LASCO material motion in the NW =
following this flare but no sign of possible Earth-directed flow. =
ACE/SWEPAM is observing a background solar wind speed, Vsw =3D 410 =
km/sec. HAFv.2 will consider events #385 through the present one, #389, =
in appropriate temporal sequence.
Please note: this is NOT an official SEC product. These predictions are =
based on input that is undergoing standardization (still under =
development), so they should be taken only as suggestions. We =
appreciate all additional data information, comments and feedback. =
Details of the models used here can be found in =
http://www.expi.net/expinet/tools.html. This procedure is being =
conducted as part of the DoD project, UPOS=20
(University Partnership in Operational Studies).=20
Respectfully,=20
Murray Dryer, Zdenka Smith, Sun Wei, Ghee Fry, Chuck Deehr, and Syun =
Akasofu=20
_______________________________________________=20
gse-ff mailing list=20
gse-ff@gi.alaska.edu=20
http://www.gi.alaska.edu/mailman/listinfo/gse-ff=20
=20
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<DIV>14 April 2002, 0744 UT: Exercise #389: =20
----run: 14 April 2002. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Input for: STOA/ISPM/HAFv.2 </DIV>
<DIV># =20
Date Start Time Vs =
Tau Location Vsw <BR>389 14 =
Apr. 0744=20
UT 730 km/s 10m N19W57 410 =
km/s </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Our ensemble's prediction window is indicated as =
follows: </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>STOA: Shock will decay on its eastern flank at about 0.8 AU along =
S-E=20
line.. <BR>ISPM: Not Available. <BR>HAFv.2: Far-eastern flank of =
shock=20
will arrive at 1100 UT, 17 April 2002, SSI =3D 0.7; delta(momentum flux) =
=3D 4.4=20
nPa. This eastern flank will arrive prior to a CIR whose fast =
stream=20
bolstered this portion of the flare shock, delaying its =
attenuation. The=20
forward shock of the CIR is expected to arrive ~0700 UT, 18 April =
2002.</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>General Description:<FONT size=3D-1> =
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2> </FONT><FONT =
size=3D3>An=20
extremely impulsive C9.6/SF flare took place in AR 9893 at N19W57. =
GOES-8=20
observed the soft X-ray enhancement at 0728-0739-0744 UT. =
Learmonth=20
observed the flare in H-alpha at 0736-0738-0746 UT. San Vito =
reported a=20
metric Type II radio drift at 0744 UT (73 MHz) to 0759 UT (25 MHz) with =
an=20
estimated coronal shock speed, Vs =3D 730 km/sec. We will assume a =
piston-driving time, tau =3D 10 min. Kent Doggett, =
NOAA/SEC/Forecaster=20
reported SOHO/LASCO material motion in the NW following this flare but =
no sign=20
of possible Earth-directed flow. ACE/SWEPAM is observing a =
background=20
solar wind speed, Vsw =3D 410 km/sec. HAFv.2 will consider events =
#385=20
through the present one, #389, in appropriate temporal =
sequence.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Please note: this is NOT an official SEC product. These predictions =
are=20
based on input that is undergoing standardization (still under =
development), so=20
they should be taken only as suggestions. We appreciate all =
additional=20
data information, comments and feedback. Details of the models used here =
can be=20
found in <A=20
href=3D"http://www.expi.net/expinet/tools.html">http://www.expi.net/expin=
et/tools.html</A>. =20
This procedure is being conducted as part of the DoD project, UPOS=20
<BR>(University Partnership in Operational Studies). </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Respectfully, <BR>Murray Dryer, Zdenka Smith, Sun Wei, Ghee Fry, =
Chuck=20
Deehr, and Syun Akasofu <BR> =20
_______________________________________________ <BR>gse-ff mailing list=20
<BR>gse-ff@gi.alaska.edu <BR><A=20
href=3D"http://www.gi.alaska.edu/mailman/listinfo/gse-ff">http://www.gi.a=
laska.edu/mailman/listinfo/gse-ff</A>=20
<BR> </DIV></BODY></HTML>
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