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Scientific personnel
V. E. Romanovsky, C. Duguay (University of Waterloo, Canada),
S. S. Marchenko, G. Grosse, R. Daanen, D. Nicolsky (GI Permafrost
Laboratory)
Project Goals
The overarching goal of our research is to obtain a deeper understanding
of the temporal (interannual and decadal to century time scales)
and spatial (north to south and west to east) variability and trends
in the active layer characteristics and permafrost temperatures
in the 20th century and their impact on hydrology within the Northern
Eurasia region, and to develop more reliable predictive capabilities
for the projection of these changes into the 21st century. Permafrost
has received much attention recently because surface temperatures
are rising in most permafrost areas of the earth, bringing permafrost
to the edge of widespread thawing and degradation. The thawing of
permafrost that is already occurring at the southern limits of the
permafrost zone can generate dramatic changes in ecosystems and
in infrastructure performance. Observational data will be used in
conjunction with a two-tiered modeling approach to simulate present,
past and future permafrost conditions in the Northern Eurasia permafrost
region.
The observational data will consist of subsurface and surface data,
together with relevant atmospheric and remote sensing data, for
the entire Northern Eurasia permafrost domain. These data will be
incorporated into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for spatially
distributed permafrost models and for interpretation, synthesis
and integration of model results. Two tiers of model simulations
will include (1) simulations for specific sites with maximum available
information for calibration and validation, (2) spatially distributed
simulations for the entire Northern Eurasia permafrost region using
the improved GIPL model developed at the Permafrost Lab, University
of Alaska Fairbanks and described by Sazonova and Romanovsky (2003).
Simulations will be both retrospective (spanning the 20th century)
and prognostic (spanning the 21st century).
Synthesis and integration activities will be achieved through the
utilization of soil and atmospheric data from a wide range of sources
in Northern Eurasia and by comparisons of present (measured) and
simulated characteristics of the active layer and permafrost dynamics
within the Northern Eurasia permafrost region. It will also include
testing the hypothesis that recent and future climate warming will
produce nonlinear responses in permafrost, thickening of the active
layer over much of the Arctic, and permafrost degradation in areas
in which the active layer fails to refreeze completely after summer
thaw. Mapping of the latter areas will be possible from the simulations
for the entire Northern Eurasia permafrost domain. The results of
this calculations and mapping will be used then to test a possible
relationship between permafrost degradation and Siberian rivers
runoff. This research is in response to the Northern Eurasia Earth
Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). It principally addresses
the NEESPI science questions regarding the local and hemispheric
effects of climate changes to permafrost.
More information on this project will follow soon.
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