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Scientific personnel
G. Grosse (GIPL), K. Walter
(INE), V.E. Romanovsky (GIPL)
Graduate students: Ben Jones is going to pursue a Ph.D. in our
project (coming from USGS), Melanie Engram is going to pursue a
M.Sc. in our project (coming from ASF), Meghan Tillapaugh is pursuing
a M.Sc. in this project
This project is funded through the Carbon Cycle Sciences Program
of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). The project
is part of the North Eurasian Earth Science Partnership (NEESPI)
and the North American Carbon Program (NACP).
Project duration: 2008-2011
Project summary
Thermokarst depressions and thermokarst lakes (TKLs) dominate large
areas of the arctic land surface and may expand as permafrost continues
to warm and thaw, releasing large quantities of methane (CH4) and
carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. We propose to define the
relationship of TKLs to global climate change by developing remote
sensing methods to quantify thermokarst and greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions from TKLs in regions (>1 million km2) of organic-rich,
icy permafrost and ice-poor permafrost in Siberia and Alaska. We
will use fine and broad scale remote sensing and field validation
to determine the role of thermokarst as both a source (GHG release)
and sink (peat accumulation) for carbon (C), thereby improving understanding
of the behavior of a major C pool (icy permafrost) previously poorly
considered in global C cycle sciences. Specifically, we will use
remote-sensing based land cover classification and change detection
to derive information about thermokarst distribution, initiation,
and related changes in land surface properties to improve C-cycle
and ecosystem models for Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions.
We will test new satellite-based techniques: SAR data will be evaluated
for upscaling field-measurements of CH4 bubbling from lakes to regional
estimates of lake CH4 emissions through the establishment of a Pan-Arctic
Lake-Ice Methane Monitoring Network (PALIMMN).
By integration of our remotely sensed spatial data, information
derived from multi-temporal satellite data (50 years), radiocarbon
dated TKL sediment records (up to ~15,000 years old), and available
and predicted climatic data, we will inform the sophisticated 2-D
and 3-D numerical permafrost models of our collaborators for prediction
of spatial and temporal thermokarst dynamics and related GHG emissions
in scenarios for up to 200 years into the future as permafrost warms
and thaws under global warming.
Thermokarst landscape at one of our main study sites: The Kolyma lowland near Cherskii, Russia
Hypotheses
- Thermokarst results in positive (GHG emissions) and negative
(C sequestration) feedbacks to the C cycle, but the release of
C from permafrost as GHG's dominates, making thermokarst in high
northern latitudes a positive feedback to global climate change.
- Permafrost degradation by thermokarst formation and expansion
of TKLs during the next 100-200 years will release tens of gigatons
of CH4 through lakes to the atmosphere, increasing the current
atmospheric CH4 burden many-fold.
Objectives and tasks
Research goals
The proposed research has the following four overarching goals:
- Quantify the current and long-term distribution and dynamics
of thermokarst in Siberia and Alaska
- Quantify GHG emissions from arctic lakes using Synthetic Aperture
Radar (SAR)
- Assess past, present and future impacts of TKL development on
the C cycle, including GHG release and C sinks
- Expand understanding of the role of arctic TKLs in global climate
change to broad audiences
PALIMMN
Through international collaboration the proposed research will
generate a pulse of activity during the IPY and establish a Pan-Arctic
Lake-Ice Methane Monitoring Network (PALIMMN). We will repeat
early-winter field surveys, which are simple and fast (~2 hrs/lake)
of lake-ice bubbles during 3 years at intensive study sites in Cherskii,
interior Alaska and Toolik, and only in one year at additional sites:
Northern Seward Peninsula, and Barrow, Alaska. International colleagues
with ongoing research at a variety of other arctic and sub-arctic
sites have committed to conduct parallel lake-ice bubble surveys
on 3-20 lakes during the IPY. The distribution of study sites in
PALIMMN will capture variation in arctic and boreal lake types.
Data generated through PALIMMN will be made available to the IPY
meta-analysis effort of the AON in order to evaluate the significance
of lake emissions for regional CH4 budgets. Data will be archived
for public access through AON at the Arctic LTER database.
We welcome researchers and non-researchers that would like to join
this effort. Please contact Dr.
Katey Walter.
Fieldwork
Extensive fieldwork was conducted on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, in July, August and October 2008. We will have an extended 5 week-expedition in April 2009. Our
fieldwork includes ground truthing of remote sensing data, thermokarst
basin and lake DGPS surveys, geophysical surveys, fieldspectral
measurements, lake ice methane bubble surveys, and sedimentological
and biogeochemical studies.
Publications resulting from this
project
Articles
- Chanton, J.P. and K.M. Walter. Siberian Permafrost Decomposition, Arctic Lakes and Carbon. Development and Transition. Published by the United Nations Development Programme and the London School of Economics and Political Science June, 2008 issue. www.developmentandtransition.net
- Grosse G, Romanovsky V, Walter K, Morgenstern A, Lantuit H, Zimov S (2008): Distribution of Thermokarst Lakes and Ponds at Three Yedoma Sites in Siberia. In: ‘Ninth International Conference on Permafrost’, Kane DL & Hinkel KM (eds), Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, pp. 551-556.
- Marchenko, S., V. Romanovsky, and G. Tipenko, Numerical Modeling of Spatial Permafrost Dynamics in Alaska, In Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Permafrost, June 29-July 3, Fairbanks, Alaska, 2008, Vol. 2, pp. 1125-1130, 2008.
- Melillo, J. F.S., R. Corell, K.M. Walter, Chapin, III, D. McGuire, Emerging Challenges. Methane from the Arctic: Global warming wildcard. United Nations Environmental Program, An overview of our changing environment, UNEP Year Book 2008, Editor Paul Harrison, Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA), Nairobi, Kenya.
- Morgenstern A, Grosse G, Schirrmeister L (2008): Genetical, Morphological, and Statistical Characterization of Lakes in the Permafrost-Dominated Lena Delta. In: ‘Ninth International Conference on Permafrost’, Kane DL & Hinkel KM (eds), Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, pp. 1239-1244.
- Schirrmeister L, Meyer H, Wetterich S, Siegert C, Kunitsky VV, Grosse G, Kuznetsova TV, Derevyagin AYu (2008): The Yedoma Suite of the Northeastern Siberian Shelf Region: Characteristics and Concept of Formation. In: ‘Ninth International Conference on Permafrost’, Kane DL & Hinkel KM (eds), Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, pp. 1595-1600.
- Schneider J, Grosse G, Wagner D (2009): Land cover classification of tundra environments in the Arctic Lena Delta based on Landsat 7 ETM+ data and its application for upscaling of methane emissions. Remote Sensing of Environment, 113: 380-391. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2008.10.013
- Walter, K. M., J. P. Chanton, F. S. Chapin, III, E. A. G. Schuur, and S. A. Zimov (2008), Methane production and bubble emissions from arctic lakes: Isotopic implications for source pathways and ages, J. Geophys. Res., 113, G00A08,doi:10.1029/2007JG000569.
- Zhuang, Q., K. M. Walter, S. A. Zimov, J. Melack, A. Khalil. in review, 2008, Challenges and Opportunities in Quantifying Global Methane Emissions from Wet Soils. EOS.
Talks and poster
- Romanovsky VE, Grosse G (2008): Overview of changes in permafrost
in the Northern Hemisphere - Link to Carbon Cycle. NASA LCLUC
Program Meeting. Adelphi, Maryland, USA, 1-2 May 2008.
- Grosse G (2008): Changing Permafrost Landscapes in North Eurasia:Remote
Sensing Observations and Challenges. ESA User Consultation Workshop,
AWI Potsdam, Germany, 20-21 February 2008.
- Grosse G (2008): Monitoring thaw lake dynamics using high-resolution remote sensing Examples from the Cape Espenberg area (Seward Peninsula) and the Kolyma lowland (Siberia). Workshop on High-Resolution Imagery for Analysis of Environmental Change in Northern Alaska, 17 October 2008, National Park Service, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA. Invited
- Grosse G, Tillapaugh M, Romanovsky VE, Walter KM, Plug LJ (2008): Spatial dynamics of thermokarst and thermo-erosion at lakes and ponds in North Siberia and Northwest Alaska using high-resolution remote sensing, Eos Trans. AGU, 89(53), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C13B-05
- Grosse G, Walter K, Plug L, Romanovsky V, Edwards M, Slater L (2008): Thermokarst dynamics and related carbon cycling in ice-rich permafrost in NW Alaska. NACP Meeting, San Diego, 17-20 Feb 2008.
- Marchenko, S, V Romanovsky, J C Comiso, Permafrost and Active Layer Modeling in the Northern Hemisphere using AVHRR Long-Term Records, Eos Trans. AGU, 89(53), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C13B-08, 2008 Nolan J, Parsekian A, Slater L, Plug L, Grosse G, Walter K (2008): Characterization of ice Content in Permafrost Soils on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Using Induced Polarization. Eos Trans. AGU, 89(53), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract NS12A-05
- Plug LJ, Walter K, Grosse G, Anthony P, Smith M (2008): Testing a numerical model for thermokarst lake expansion using morphologic measurements, N. Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Eos Trans. AGU, 89(53), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract: C22A-07.
- Romanovsky VE, Kholodov AL, Marchenko SS, Grosse G (2008): Changes in permafrost in Northern Eurasia. Eos Trans. AGU, 89(53), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract GC52A-04
- Romanovsky, V. and G. Grosse, Overview of changes in permafrost in Northern Hemisphere; link to Carbon Cycle, LCLUC, University of Maryland, May 1-2, 2008
- Romanovsky, V., G. Grosse and S. Marchenko, Past, Present, and Future of Permafrost in a Changing World, Geological Society of America 2008 Joint Annual Meeting, October 2008, Houston, TX Romanovsky, V., Past, Present and Future Changes in Permafrost and Implications for a Changing Carbon Budget, American Meteorological Society Seminar: Accelerating Atmospheric CO2 Growth from Economic Activity, Carbon Intensity, and Efficiency of Natural Carbon Sinks, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington, DC, September 26, 2008
- Romanovsky, V., Permafrost and Active Layer Dynamics, Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change (WildREACH): Predicting Future Habitats of Arctic Alaska, 17-18 November, 2008, Fairbanks, Alaska
- Romanovsky, V., State and Fate of Permafrost on a Changing Planet, Lecture at the seminar series “Arctic future under influence of summer ice free ocean” at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, May 22, 2008
- Walter KM, Vas D, Brosius L, Grosse G (2008): Methane from Arctic Lakes: Observations from 50 lakes in Alaska and Siberia. Eos Trans. AGU, 89(53), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract B24A-05.
Education and outreach
- We initiated a 2-year Remote Sensing Task Force within the International
Permafrost Association (IPA) during the Ninth International Conference
on Permaforst in June 2008.
- Follow this extrernal link to the LA Times and read an article about our fieldwork and watch a fantastic video produced by staff journalists accompanying us during an expedition to the Seward Peninsula in October 2008 (article and video were published on 02-20-2009).
- K. Walter & G. Grosse, June 2008: Public presentation of project goals on the Seward Peninsula to locals in Shishmaref
- G. Grosse chaired a special session on remote sensing of changes in permafrost landscapes during NICOP - G. Grosse chaired a special session on remote sensing of permafrost during AGU Fall Meeting 2008
- Walter held a formal workshop and trained 12 participants in the PALIMMN method in Fairbanks including National Park Service scientists, home and public school teachers, Anchorage museum education and outreach coordinators. We informally trained an additional 7 investigators during the Oct. 2008 field season on the Seward Peninsula. Additionally, PI Walter instructed 50 young researchers from 13 countries on the PALIMMN method at the November Permafrost Young Researchers Network training workshop in St. Petersburg, Russia. We developed a preliminary PALIMMN website (http://www.alaska.edu/uaf/cem/ine/walter/ongoing_projects.xml) and have posted ‘How-to...’ documents and protocols describing methods and background scientific information there.
- G. Grosse continues to be US National Representative of the Permafrost Young Researchers Network (PYRN), an international organization active in attracting young students into a science or engineering career in permafrost-related sciences
- G. Grosse, V. Romanovsky, and B. Jones were invited participants in the US Fish and Wildlife Service initiated meeting ‘Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change (WildREACH): Predicting Future Habitats of Arctic Alaska’.
- Grosse, Romanovsky, and Jones were invited experts in the discussion groups on environmental change effects on fish and birds. November 17-18, 2008.
- V. Romanovsky, June 3, 2008: Lecture at the IARC Summer School 2008, Barrow, AK
- V. Romanovsky, September 26, 2008: Presentation at the American Meteorological Society Seminar: Accelerating Atmospheric CO2 Growth from Economic Activity, Carbon Intensity, and Efficiency of Natural Carbon Sinks, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington, DC
- V. Romanovsky, April 26, 2008: Measuring and Modeling Permafrost in Alaska and Russia, Lecture to the ACMP teachers, Fairbanks, Alaska
- V. Romanovsky, June 2, 2008: Filmed interview to San Francisco Exploratorium for the serial “Exploratorium in Barrow”
- V. Romanovsky, June 18, 2008: Presentation and participation in discussion at the “Life from IPY” event “IPY Day: Land and Life”
- V. Romanovsky, October 16, 2008: Participation in teleconference organized by NOAA in relation with the NOAA State of the Arctic Report release
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