Climatological data, active layer and permafrost measurements, and modeling are used to investigate the response of permafrost temperatures to changes in climate in Alaska north of the Brooks Range. Mean annual air temperature (MAAT) from 1987 to 1991 within about 110 km from the Arctic Coast was -12.4_ to 0.3_C along the coast to -5.2_C inland. Air temperature changes alone cannot explain the permafrost warming from the coast to inland. Measurements show that MAPST are about 3_C to 6_C warmer than MAAT in the region. The interaction of local microrelief and vegetation with snow appears to change the insulating effect of seasonal snow cover and may be the major factor which controls the permafrost temperature during the winter and thus the MAPST. Sensitivity analyses show that for the same MAAT conditions, changes in seasonal snow cover parameters can increase or decrease the MAPST about 7_C. Snowfall was greater during the cold years and less during the warm years and was poorly correlated between stations. These results suggest that the effects of changes in air temperatures on permafrost temperatures historically may also have been modified by changes in snow cover. A numerical model was used to investigate the effect of changes in initial permafrost temperature conditions. MAAT, seasonal snow cover and thermal properties of soils on the permafrost temperatures. Permafrost may have started warming about the same time as the atmosphere did in the late 1800’s, and the long term mean surface temperature of the permafrost may have been established prior to this time. Variations in the penetration depth of the warming signal may be related to differences in thermal properties of permafrost. Variations in the magnitude of the permafrost surface warming may be due to the effect of local factors such as soil type, vegetation, microrelief, soil moisture, and seasonal snow cover. The effect of the interaction and snow cover may amplify temperature changes in the permafrost. A surprising result of this research is that permafrost temperatures may be changing in response to the solar cycle. Observations of permafrost temperatures in shallow drill holes in northern Alaska near the Beaufort Sea coast show that these temperatures have cycled during the decade from 1983 to 1993. The two sites nearest the coast indicate a period of about 10 years and an amplitude at the permafrost surface of about 2_C. The two sites farthest from the coast have similar periods but reduced amplitudes of about 0.6_C. Changes in air temperatures, snowfall, length of sea ice season, solar effects, and other factors could, in principle, produce the observed temperature changes. Barrow air temperatures have a periodicity of 10.1 years but currently lead the sunspot cycle. Snowfall also shows evidence for a periodicity near 10 years. Near Prudhoe Bay, the length of the sea ice season increased about one week from 1979 to 1986 which could have caused a decrease in coastal air temperatures. The sunspot cycle (10-11 year period) leads temperatures at the 30 m depth by two to three years which is about the expected lead. During the descending part of the last solar cycle, satellite measurements of the solar total irradiance showed a decrease of about 3W m-2, which is about four times the calculated mean energy flux at the permafrost table (0.6 to 0.7 W m-2) required to produce the observed temperature changes.

Scientific personnel: T. E. Osterkamp and T. Zhang