IPY 2007-2008: Investigation of the impact of western Arctic volcanic eruption on weather and climate
Motivation: During the International Polar Year (IPY) many measurements will be made in the Arctic. Recently, volcanoes of the western Arctic have been highly active and emitted large amounts of particles, heat, water vapor and trace gases into the atmosphere; Fourpeaked, a volcano that has not been active for more than 10,000 years, started emitting smoke. Thus, it has to be expected that during IPY volcanic eruptions may also occur. Knowing what the impact of volcanic eruptions on local weather may be will help to assess how IPY measurements are impacted by volcanic eruptions, i.e. distinguish between climate variablity/change and external forcing.
Goal: The aim of our activities is to separate the variance in weather and climate ascribable to volcanic effects.
Method: We perform various simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to analyze various aspects of influence of volcanic eruptions on local weather. A series of hypothesis tests encompassing all individual and interaction factor effects is to be carried out applying an ANalysis Of VARiance (ANOVA) approach. ANOVA separates the variance ascribable to one group of causes from variance ascribable to other groups. This means the total variation present in a simulated quantity (e.g. temperature) is partitioned into components, with each component attributed to one identifiable source of variation (e.g. heat release). The ANOVA is performed for the entire model domain and for smaller radii around the volcano as described in detail in Mölders and Olson (2004). Applying the ANOVA for different radii permits to assess the radius of impact of the eruption on local weather.
Personnel: Nicole Mölders, Morgan E. Brown, Stacy E. Porter
Sponsor: CIFAR NOAA
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