A Balmy or Biting Winter Ahead? Ask the Bears

The neighborhood chickadees worried me the other day and the local red squirrel did nothing to ease my mind. The usually mellow chickadees attacked my bird feeder, emptying it of sunflower seeds almost as quickly as I could spill them in. A few mornings later, the squirrel woke me up with a steady tapping on my roof as it tossed down dozens of spruce cones from an overhanging tree.

It seemed as if the tiny critters had something to tell me. I wondered if they or other animals have the ability to predict what kind of winter we'll have.

I called Pierre Deviche, an associate professor of animal physiology with UAF's Institute of Arctic Biology, to find a reason for the chickadees' feeding frenzy.

The birds were busy caching seeds for later, he said. Chickadees' actions are probably regulated by internal rhythms rather than an ability to sense bad weather, Deviche said. The chickadees' bustle was perfectly normal. In a way, they were predicting that winter was indeed coming, but they weren't telling me anything about how cold it's going to be.

Deviche said he hadn't heard of any scientific studies on animals' ability to predict the severity of winter. That subject would be a particularly hard one to research, he added, because it would take many, many years of observations.

Other scientists told me the same thing. A library search led me to just one study, on the woolly bear caterpillar. The woolly bear is a fuzzy larva of the tiger moth found in the Midwest and Northeast. According to legend, a person can tell what kind of winter is ahead by observing the woolly bear's coat. If the brown segment between the two black segments is long, the winter will be mild. A narrow brown band means a long, cold winter is ahead.

Biologist Charles Curran began studying woolly bears beginning in 1948. For the first three years, the caterpillars had wide brown bands, accurately forecasting three consecutive mild winters. The caterpillars failed the next year. Curran gave up the study in 1955 after finding two groups of caterpillars living near each other that had vastly different predictions for the upcoming winter.

Another researcher, anthropologist Richard K. Nelson, lived, hunted and trapped with Alaska Natives above the Arctic Circle for more than a year. He detailed their observations of animals' predictive behavior in his book, Hunters of the Northern Forest.

Nelson wrote about an Indian who trapped fish in the Black River country for about 70 years. The old man set fish traps on creeks and noticed each fall he would catch fish earlier during years when the creeks froze up early. When there was a late freeze-up, the fish came out later than usual.

Koyukon Indians say the winter's snowfall is predicted by snowshoe hares. If the hares leave wide footprints in the fall, it indicates extra-furry hind feet, a sign that heavy snowfalls will follow.

Kutchin Indians from Chalkyitsik say that black bears can predict how severe a winter will be. Prior to a mild winter, the bears will make their sleeping places close to the den opening; if a cold winter is ahead, bears will sleep far away from the opening.

Though some might dismiss the preceding paragraphs as folklore, Nelson pointed out that the animal predictions are based upon centuries of observation by Native people. Since observation is the backbone of any scientific study, perhaps the Native beliefs are the most valid long-term animal weather predictions that exist.