Warmer Years Ahead?

Predictions of doom are so common that most of us treat them like cries of wolf. Contributing to our disbelief at times is the long-term nature of some predictions, especially those of geophysical nature, such as the warning about the effects of spray cans on the ozone layer. Though scientists consider valid the warning that the world must cut down on its release of fluorocarbons to the atmosphere, it's hard for us to maintain for years a high level of excitement about such issues.

Unfortunately, here is another issue of special concern to northerners. It is the steady rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a change that is most likely to affect the high latitudes more than other regions of the world. Just prior to the age of industrialization, the earth's atmosphere contained 288 to 295 parts per million (ppm) carbon dioxide. By 1958, the carbon dioxide content had risen to about 314 ppm, and by 1978 it was near 330 ppm.

The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is attributed to man's burning of fossil fuels, mainly coal and petroleum, and also to burning associated with deforestation for agricultural or logging purposes. The atmospheric content of carbon dioxide is expected to increase by at least several ppm each year, well into the next century. Sometime in the next hundred years or so the fossil fuels will be fairly well used up and the injection of excessive carbon dioxide into the air will decline.

Still, at the rate we are burning fuel we can expect to create worldwide warming of near-surface air by 1.5° to 3.5°C (3° to 6°F) and even more warming at high latitude. Off hand, this sounds like a good deal for the north country. The winters might get warmer and some of the permafrost should disappear.

That's such a happy note to end on, perhaps it's best not to mention possible bad effects of the carbon dioxide increase.